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Mahagathbandhan in Bihar: Will arithmetic of seat-sharing overshadow chemistry of vote yatra?

Mahagathbandhan in Bihar: Will arithmetic of seat-sharing overshadow chemistry of vote yatra?

NEW DELHI: Rahul Gandhi’s “Voter Adhikar Yatra” in Bihar was a picture-perfect show of unity – with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and RJD‘s Tejashwi Yadav joining hands to unleash a coordinated offensive against the Election Commission and the BJP, accusing them of stealing elections. It was a campaign that brought together all the Mahagathbandhan leaders. The chemistry between the allies was obvious and was aptly summed up by Rahul Gandhi when he asserted during the course of the yatra: “A very strong partnership had been forged. All the parties (in the bloc) are working in sync. There’s no tension, and there’s mutual respect for each other as we are ideologically and politically aligned. The result will be good.” Ironically though, Rahul made this statement to evade a direct reply to a pointed question – “Why Congress was not backing RJD’s Tejashwi as CM candidate?” Clearly, the bonhomie on display notwithstanding, the Congress leader was not willing to endorse the leadership role of the senior partner in the Bihar alliance. This despite the fact that Tejashwi had already openly proclaimed during the yatra that if the opposition is voted to power in the next Lok Sabha elections, Rahul will become the Prime Minister.Little wonder then, with the yatra over, realpolitik has taken over. The yatra bonhomie between the allies seems to have given way to pressure games as they finalise the seat-sharing deal. While claims and counterclaims by allies do point to fissures in the alliance, most of this could be posturing to extract the best deal.Why seat-sharing deal may be a tough nut to crack?In the 2020 assembly elections, RJD had contested 144 seats and won 75. The Congress had the worst strike rate as it contested 70 seats but won only 19. The Left parties had performed very well five years back with the CPI-ML winning 12 out of 19 it got under seat-sharing, while CPM won 2 out of 4 and CPI 2 out of 6.This time around, there are at least three more parties joining the opposition alliance: Vikasheel Insaan Party of Mukesh Sahani, JMM and the breakaway faction of LJP – headed by Chirag’s uncle.Interestingly, five years back, VIP was part of Mahagathbandhan till the seat-sharing deal was announced. While the announcement was being made, VIP’s Sahni walked out of the opposition alliance and crossed over to the NDA. This time around he has sought 60 seats and the post of deputy chief minister if the alliance wins.Sample some of the statements made by the allies for a better bargain this time around, and one understands why finalising a deal may not be easy.CPI’s D Raja“We will try to get more seats. If other parties are demanding, our party has a great history in Bihar and it has a widespread presence and organisational strength and our party can decide the political course in different district. So we should get reasonable number of seats.”VIP’s Mukesh Sahani“The Vikasheel Insaan Party will contest 60 seats in 2025, with candidates from our allied parties contesting all remaining seats.”“We have always believed that if new parties come into the alliance, then every party will have to contribute from their kitty. In every state there are good seats and bad seats (in terms of winnability) and we believe that one party should not get all the good seats and the other gets the bad ones. In the sharing of seats, there should be a balance between good and bad seats” Congress’s Krishna Allavaru“Hopefully, Congress would adopt a “more realistic” approach in the ongoing seat-sharing talks for the upcoming assembly elections, drawing lessons from its performance in the 2020 polls when it had “bitten off more than it could possibly chew. Maybe contesting fewer seats than last time but winning more and performing better… would be in the interest of the Congress, and definitely that of the entire INDIA bloc.RJD, Congress under pressure?The pressure is mostly on the RJD, which is the biggest party in the alliance and has maximum stakes. Little wonder, Tejashwi has already embarked on a solo yatra to perhaps assert his dominance in the coalition. For the Congress also, its 2020 performance is a hurdle notwithstanding the claimed gains from Rahul’s ‘Voter Adhikar’ yatra. It remains to be seen how much the two parties are willing to compromise to accommodate the other parties. Clearly, for the Mahagathbandhan, after a smooth yatra, the road ahead appears to be bumpy.


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